Maharashtra, Haryana election results: India Election forecast 2019
As every other media outlet faltered in its forecast of the Haryana and Maharashtra election, the Axis-My-India exit poll gave the most accurate picture of around 11 crore voters in both states.
Elections can be unpredictable for political parties. Their results are not for the India Today Group.
As every other media outlet outperformed the Haryana and Maharashtra election forecasts, the Axis-My-India exit poll gave the most accurate picture of around 11 crore voters in both states.
Nearly all other pollsters and TV stations were unanimous in predicting a sweep by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Haryana led by Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar.
But it was the Axis-My-India exit poll that hit the bull’s eye, forecasting anywhere between 32 and 44 for the ruling party. Based on face-to-face interviews with voters from 90 constituencies, the India Today-Axis-My-India Today poll, with a sample size of 23,118, said the Congress would win 30-42 seats above 15 Withstands swelling in the border. five years ago.
It gave Dushyant Chautala led Jananayak Janata Party (JJP) six and ten seats among a disbanded faction of the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD).
As of Thursday evening, at the time of writing, the actual results were similar to India Today’s predictions – the BJP successfully leading in 40, Congress in 30 and JJP in 10 constituencies.
However, other pollsters were not actually able to capture the voter pulse in Haryana. In its exit poll, the Republic-Jan ki Baat gave the BJP between 52-63 seats and the Congress between 15 and 19 seats. According to News18-IPSOS, the ruling party was headed to secure 75 more and Congress 10. The ABP-CVoter chart indicated 72 for BJP and eight for Congress. Times Now predicted 71 for Khattar’s party and 11 for Congress Led by Leader of Opposition Bhupendra Singh Hooda.
In Maharashtra, the actual results were in sharp contrast to the India Today-Axis-My-India predictions for the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance, with many other pollsters predicting a landslide for the ruling alliance.
According to the Axis-My-India survey, the BJP-Sena alliance was projected to secure 166 to 194 seats and the NCP-Congress alliance between 72 and 90.
As of Thursday evening, the writing-time election results successfully led to 159 of the 288 constituencies in the state and 105 of the NCP-Congress alliance.
Contrast this with exit polls performed by other players.
Times Now predicted 230 seats for BJP-Shiv Sena and 48 seats for NCP-Congress. Republic-Jan Ki Baat had forecasts 216–230 for the governing coalition and 52–59 for the opposition. News18-IPSOS gave 243 seats to BJP-Shiv Sena and less than 41 seats to the NCP-Congress alliance in Maharashtra.
According to ABP-CVoter, BJP-Sena was projected to win 204 and opposition 69.
Kalli Puri, the vice-chairman of India Today Group, said, “I think reclaiming exit polls, especially against popular belief, separate news channels from propaganda channels.” “This is our approach to on-ground reporting and non-alignment that we were able to read the data with a level of understanding. And doing in Haryana elections, where the margin on so many seats was so thin, is a validation of the scientific and Axis In-depth approach, ”the vice president said.
INCREDIBLE TRACK RECORD
Of all the elections held in India between 2013 and 2019, subsequent surveys by Axis My India have predicted the most accurate in 95 percent of cases.
Since 2013, Axis My India has conducted 38 post-poll surveys, of which 36 have been spot on.
With the world’s largest democracy conducting the largest exit poll for the 2019 general elections, the Axis My India exit poll, for example, predicted 339-365 seats for the BJP-led NDA and 77-108 for the UPA in new Lok Sabha. The actual results were no different – the NDA got 352 seats and 92 seats to the UPA in the lower house of Parliament.
Pradeep Gupta, head of Axis-My-India, attributed his successful predictions to teamwork and scientific monitoring of voter behavior. “We follow international best practices. Our method is highly sophisticated which helps us eliminate margins of error,” he explained. “Our sampling is the most demographically representative in any election. We closely and continuously monitor the voter’s mood and intent.”
I am the author and CEO of Hungama Khabar since 2019. I am writing a news article on the World, Technology, Health, Travel, Entertainment, Business, Politics and many more.
ADDRESS: Kathmandu, Nepal
Email id: Gautambnod@gmail.com